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Documentation/Drug Intelligence/Shortages Tracker

Shortages Tracker

The FDA drug shortage list joined to the Orange Book supplier base, Medicare demand and Medicaid rebate exits.

Open Shortages Tracker -- in the sidebar under Drug Intelligence.

The FDA shortage list on its own tells you a drug is short. It does not tell you whether that is a structural failure with no backup supplier or a temporary demand spike on a molecule with fifteen makers. Shortages Tracker adds that context.

KPI band

MetricWhat it counts
Tracked recordsEvery record on the FDA live snapshot, including discontinuation notices
Drugs in shortageCurrently short, with the discontinuation-notice count shown separately
Median shortage ageMedian duration of shortages that are still open
Updated (30 days)Shortage records FDA revised in the last month
Single-source gapsOpen shortages with at most one Orange Book maker still marketing by the same route, counted inside the longest-running set analyzed for a supplier base, so it is a floor
Longest runningAge of the oldest shortage still open, measured to today

Read this first: notices are not shortages

The FDA list mixes two different things. Records with status TO BE DISCONTINUED are 506C discontinuation notices -- a manufacturer telling FDA it is leaving. They are not shortages. Qope counts them separately everywhere. The Landscape tab excludes them from every bar and count. The Manufacturers tab keeps them: a notice is read as a market exit rather than a supply gap, so it feeds the Withdrawing column and the risk score but never the Short now or Records figures. A company that has only filed notices still appears, with a Short now of zero, and the /n denominator beside it counts every molecule the company has on the list, notices included.

The list is also a live snapshot, not a history. Resolved shortages drop off. That is why "median shortage age" is computed over open shortages only.

Tabs

Timeline

Every tracked drug plotted over time, showing when each shortage began, whether it is ongoing, and where discontinuation notices sit relative to real shortages.

Supply gaps

The most valuable tab. Active shortages are cross-joined to the Orange Book supplier base and to Medicare Part D prescribing, then ranked.

Each molecule gets a supplier tier:

TierApproved manufacturersRead
Single source0 or 1
Structural shortage, no backup supply. Highest entry value. A molecule whose every Orange Book listing is flagged discontinued reads No active supplier.
Thin supply2 to 3Fragile, little redundancy if one falls out.
Moderate4 to 9Some redundancy in the supply base.
Deep supply10+Shortage is demand- or input-driven, not a structural supply gap.

The priority score (0-100) is supplier fragility multiplied by Medicare demand multiplied by duration. Toggle Structural only to filter to single-source and thin-supply molecules.

Additional chips on each row:

  • exited MDRP -- labelers have terminated NDCs for this drug in the Medicaid rebate program. The supply base is shrinking beyond what the FDA record shows.
  • n ANDA -- approved generic applications on the molecule, with a note if a Reference Listed Drug is on file for a new filer to reference.

Notes on how to read the numbers:

  • Supplier counts are distinct Orange Book applicants that still market an approved product for the molecule by the same route as the short product, so oral makers do not read as a backup for an injection shortage. Listings flagged discontinued are excluded, since they are not a backup a buyer can switch to. A >= prefix means the listing was longer than Qope pages through, so the count is a floor.
  • Demand is Medicare Part D prescriber-drug lines for the whole molecule across all dosage forms. It is a breadth measure, not spend. An injection-only shortage of a common oral molecule will still show a large number.
  • Hospital-administered (Part B) drugs legitimately show no Part D demand and are scored neutrally rather than as zero.
  • Combination products resolve to no supplier tier, no demand count and no rebate exit, because each of those matches would silently resolve to a single component.

Export the ranked list as CSV with the score columns included.

Market exits

Early warning. Labelers that have pulled or scheduled NDCs out of the Medicaid Drug Rebate Program, for molecules the FDA shortage list carries no open shortage of in that dosage form. A rebate listing for an oral tablet still shows here when only the injection is short, because it is not the supply that is short. Supply exits often appear here quarters before a shortage is declared.

  • Rows are grouped by molecule, and labelers are counted by parent company, so two arms of one firm do not read as two exits.
  • Multiple independent labelers leaving the same molecule is the strongest signal. The tab badge counts molecules that lost two or more.
  • Termination dates are often set in the future. Those rows carry a scheduled marker on the date and a (n sched.) note on the NDC count, and are not yet in effect.
  • Single-source share is the share of terminated NDCs flagged category S in MDRP.
  • Terminations with a later reactivation are excluded.
  • Molecules already short in the same dosage form appear in Supply gaps instead, marked with an "exited MDRP" chip.

Landscape

Therapeutic categories most affected, and a 12-month sparkline of when records were last revised.

Two things to understand:

  • FDA tags a record with every category it touches, so a record counts toward each one and the bars sum to more than the record count.
  • Because this is a live snapshot, each record is counted once at its latest revision, so recent months always dominate the sparkline.

Click a category bar to drill into Recent updates filtered to that category.

Manufacturers

Every company on the FDA shortage list, ranked by a risk score built from how much of the open list it owns, how long its gaps stay open, and whether it is also withdrawing product. Entities that FDA labels with a parent (for example HOSPIRA, INC., A PFIZER COMPANY) are rolled up under that parent; hover a rolled-up row to see its constituents. Subsidiaries FDA does not tag stay separate, so a few groups remain split.

Recent updates

One row per drug, most recently revised first, with manufacturer, therapy area, dosage form, presentation count, status, stated reason and revision date. Status chips at the top filter the list.

FDA re-verifies most of the list on the same day, so the revision date rarely separates entries. Within a date, the drugs listed across the most presentation records are shown first.

Filter parity

Some category and dosage-form values in this source contain commas. The backend splits filter values on commas, so those values can never match in the full registry table. Where that applies, Qope replaces the "Open in full table" button with a greyed Not filterable in full table chip and explains why on hover, rather than sending you to a table that silently returns different counts. See Data Caveats.